Possible Short-Term Sentiment Catalysts

Two items to pay attention to may improve sentiment vs. the virus pandemic at least for a short period:

Possible Treatment for COVID-19 is Chloroquinine – while this hit mainstream TV news last night (first time I saw it), it began to emerge a couple of days ago that this venerable non-patented anti-malaria treatment may have efficacy against the virus.

A possible S-curve vs uninterrupted exponential spread. I had been discussing my personal opinion this may end up being the case. I’ll save you my arguments, since I’m not a virologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night. An analysis of data suggests a power law may be in play vs. a pure exponential. In an irony only I may appreciate, this is the same principle behind the fallacy of the quants in finance – that asset returns can be characterized by a log-normal distribution, when in reality the tails are too fat, because they are governed by a power law ( which in turn is determined by the effects of disturbance when a smaller population of large pools of capital re-allocates ). If you’re a true math geek, this all goes to Zipf’s law, which is everywhere in population statistics.

So have this on your radar for a possible short-term positive impact on market sentiment.

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